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To forecast the number of website visits and sales, we use the adaptive trend-seasonal multiplicative response forecasting method (ATSM model). The trend-seasonal model takes into account the seasonal component of the dependent variable, while the adaptive method allows for an increased weighting of the most recent year of observations compared to previous observations using weighting coefficients. Additionally, we use a multiplicative forecasting model, which assumes that the dispersion of values increases over time.
Cost of forecasting Forecasting trainingA linear, parabolic, or even exponential function can be used to describe the trend line. An additional, irregularly sized influence factor can also be introduced to explain the impact of the presence or absence of advertising on the number of visits or sales.
Scenario forecasting of possible options for advertising investments justifies the feasibility of further increasing advertising costs.
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